Recovery threatened by new restrictions

Economists warn that the imposition of further Covid restrictions could mean growth flatlines over the last few months of the year. Paul Dales at Capital Economics says that the 10pm curfew on restaurants and bars and another homeworking push could mean GDP does not rise at all in October, November or December. Samuel Tombs at Pantheon Macro adds that if the Government ordered pubs, restaurants and other consumer businesses to close again then GDP would fall to 15% below pre-Covid levels as long as the restrictions lasted, compared to a 5% shortfall without them. The Telegraph’s Tom Rees proposes that if businesses fear ongoing stop-start restrictions they could be persuaded to hold back investment, pushing other businesses over the edge.

Read more: The Daily Telegraph